What Your Area's Energy Future Is Projected to Look Like
Network operators publish several possible futures for heat pumps, electric vehicles and solar so they can plan their local electricity networks. Choose a council to see the projections available for it.
Each council is answered by exactly one network operator, and that operator is named beside every figure. Operators use different assumptions, so their figures are not added together or compared directly.
Choose a council area
The list holds only the councils an operator serves almost entirely. Others appear in the published releases and are deliberately absent here; they are named further down, with the share of homes each operator actually reaches.
Several futures, not one forecast
The main pathways are Holistic Transition, Electric Engagement and Hydrogen Evolution. All reach net zero by 2050 but differ in how transport and heating change. Some operators publish additional pathways, which are named in the relevant table.
There is no central case here and we do not calculate one. Each figure is labelled with its pathway. Averaging them would create a scenario that no operator published.
The pathways can share the same near-term figures before separating. That does not mean the early years are certain.
All domestic heat pumps
Projection, not measurement
All domestic heat pumps projected in Leeds
Northern Powergrid · NPgN+NPgY · Northern Powergrid DFES - 2026 Draft · published as a draft
This council sits across two of Northern Powergrid’s licence areas, so the figures below span both.
Full electric and hybrid heat pumps together, as Northern Powergrid publishes them. This is the publisher’s own total, not our addition: the two parts are published separately as well and come close to it without re-adding to it exactly, so the three figures must never be added to one another and the small difference between them is not a fourth category.
Electric Engagement
273,603
in 2050, under Electric Engagement
Holistic Transition
298,002
in 2050, under Holistic Transition
Hydrogen Evolution
196,530
in 2050, under Hydrogen Evolution
| Year | Electric Engagement | Holistic Transition | Hydrogen Evolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2,517 | 2,517 | 2,517 |
| 2030 | 15,924 | 15,924 | 15,924 |
| 2035 | 74,062 | 74,062 | 74,062 |
| 2040 | 136,646 | 145,916 | 113,429 |
| 2045 | 212,651 | 231,307 | 160,360 |
| 2050 | 273,603 | 298,002 | 196,530 |
The three pathways carry identical figures until 2036, and differ from 2036 onwards. That is one near-term trajectory the scenarios were built on, not agreement that the next decade is settled — which is why the earlier rows still name the pathway they belong to.
Leeds · Northern Powergrid serves about 94% of the homes in this authority
Electric cars and vans
Projection, not measurement
Electric cars and vans projected in Leeds
Northern Powergrid · NPgN+NPgY · Northern Powergrid DFES - 2026 Draft · published as a draft
This council sits across two of Northern Powergrid’s licence areas, so the figures below span both.
Hybrid and full electric cars and vans together, including commercial vans. Not a count of household vehicles. Electric lorries and buses are counted separately by the operator and are not included here.
Electric Engagement
422,812 vehicles
in 2050, under Electric Engagement
Holistic Transition
400,029 vehicles
in 2050, under Holistic Transition
Hydrogen Evolution
445,540 vehicles
in 2050, under Hydrogen Evolution
| Year | Electric Engagement | Holistic Transition | Hydrogen Evolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23,239 vehicles | 23,239 vehicles | 23,239 vehicles |
| 2030 | 128,249 vehicles | 128,249 vehicles | 128,249 vehicles |
| 2035 | 268,072 vehicles | 268,072 vehicles | 268,072 vehicles |
| 2040 | 371,663 vehicles | 371,610 vehicles | 371,657 vehicles |
| 2045 | 411,410 vehicles | 397,020 vehicles | 425,734 vehicles |
| 2050 | 422,812 vehicles | 400,029 vehicles | 445,540 vehicles |
The three pathways carry identical figures until 2036, and differ from 2036 onwards. That is one near-term trajectory the scenarios were built on, not agreement that the next decade is settled — which is why the earlier rows still name the pathway they belong to.
Leeds · Northern Powergrid serves about 94% of the homes in this authority
Domestic solar capacity
Projection, not measurement
Domestic solar capacity projected in Leeds
Northern Powergrid · NPgN+NPgY · Northern Powergrid DFES - 2026 Draft · published as a draft
This council sits across two of Northern Powergrid’s licence areas, so the figures below span both.
Installed domestic solar capacity in megawatts, across every system size. Not a count of installations — the publisher gives none anywhere in the release.
Electric Engagement
266.5 MW
in 2050, under Electric Engagement
Holistic Transition
262.5 MW
in 2050, under Holistic Transition
Hydrogen Evolution
122.1 MW
in 2050, under Hydrogen Evolution
| Year | Electric Engagement | Holistic Transition | Hydrogen Evolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 37.5 MW | 37.5 MW | 37.5 MW |
| 2030 | 64.4 MW | 64.4 MW | 64.4 MW |
| 2035 | 102.4 MW | 102.4 MW | 102.4 MW |
| 2040 | 152.8 MW | 148.8 MW | 110.1 MW |
| 2045 | 208.4 MW | 204.5 MW | 115.6 MW |
| 2050 | 266.5 MW | 262.5 MW | 122.1 MW |
The three pathways carry identical figures until 2036, and differ from 2036 onwards. That is one near-term trajectory the scenarios were built on, not agreement that the next decade is settled — which is why the earlier rows still name the pathway they belong to.
Leeds · Northern Powergrid serves about 94% of the homes in this authority
None of this has happened yet
Everything above is modelled. It is worth saying plainly because the figures look exactly like the measured ones elsewhere on this site: the same units, the same council names, the same tables.
For measured consumption, heating, EPC bands and equipment already connected, see energy use in your area.
Frequently asked questions
Which of the scenarios is the one that will happen?
None is a prediction or central forecast. Network operators publish several possible futures so they can plan for a range of demand. Each figure is labelled with its pathway and the pathways should not be averaged.
What is Falling Behind, and why is it not one of the pathways?
Falling Behind is a counterfactual in which the country misses net zero. It is shown only where the network operator publishes it and is kept separate from the net-zero pathways.
Why do the scenarios show identical numbers for the first decade?
The modelling gives the pathways a shared near-term trajectory and lets them diverge later. The early figures are still projections, not settled outcomes.
Why is my council not on the list?
The relevant network operator may not be covered here, or its network may serve too little of the council for the figure to represent the whole area.
Can I add two operators’ figures together for one area?
No. Each operator describes only the part served by its own network, so adding figures could double-count or miss homes. This page uses one operator for each council.
